The Anti-Fragile City:- City of the Future?

In 2012 Nassim Taleb wrote the book Anti-Fragile:- Things that Gain from Disorder. The book was influential in it that challenged and overturned some of the most base values and beliefs values we live by today. It introduced an entirely new perspective to understanding the world and its most pressing challenges. Simply put Taleb in his book says that the opposite of fragile is not something that is strong or robust, rather it’s Anti-Fragile.

Pretentious as the term may sound at first, it provides powerful insights into understanding the world as we know it today. The term Anti-Fragility refers to “a property of systems in which they increase in capability to thrive as a result of stressors, shocks, volatility, noise, mistakes, faults, attacks, or failures” This is different from the concept of resilience or the ability to endure but rather the ability to emerge stronger in the future.

Today the concept of Anti-Fragility could not be more relevant to Cities in the 21st Century than it is now. As the world continues to urbanize and bigger populations congregate in cities the stressors that cities face are multiple including Physical, Environmental, Social, and Civic. These include anything from Floods, Earthquakes, fires, and other natural disasters to the growing scarcity of Physical and Economic Resources. Global rise in Temperatures makes this even worse with the rising risk of Natural Calamities, Resource Shortages, and Unsustainable Consumption. On the one hand, it may appear reasonable to say that such cities be made more “Resilient” and “Protected” against the vagaries of climate change and other probable disasters. On the other hand are those who say that such allowing matters to reach a stage is in itself unacceptable. And that any situation where cities are compelled to defend themselves against external disasters is unacceptable.

However, the reality is neither of the two. As urbanization continues and by 2050 most of the world lives in cities, it is important that the cities be re-imagined and re-cast in advance so that they can respond to various risks Climate and Non-Climate. This means cities that can not only withstand Climate, Natural, and Human Risks but actively adapt themselves to become stronger in the future. The core trait of Anti-Fragility is that rather than the object adapting itself to withstand the forces pitted against it, the object renews itself with each and every encounter.

This would seem to be better said than done. After all, a city is a complex system composed of many elements. To name a few these including Infrastructure, Services, Governance, Energy, Space, and of course People. To think that any such system can be re-modeled to make it not just resistant to disasters but also Self-renewable may be a bit hard to imagine. But with a 1)Decentralized Planning 2)Physical Flexibility, 3) Public Autonomy & Social Participation, it is possible, The worst of calamities can not only be managed but the city can adapt itself to be better every time.

1. Decentralized Planning:- Municipalities as Elected Members of the people have a direct responsibility to them. However, a large part of Urban Planning today is centrally planned and centrally Coordinated. This leads to the top-down relegation of functions and tasks which are micro-managed by a vast bureaucracy that is not used to complexity. This leads to inflexibility and inertia on part of Public Bodies to strengthen and govern Urban Eco-systems and respond to threats. A Centrally Planned Urban System also leads to concentration of power at the top and distancing from the priorities of common citizens, leading to unanticipated consequences when the unexpected occurs.

2. Physical Flexibility:- Most cities today are sedentary settlements hosting large populations. While some cities tend to nurture sustainability, efficiency, and healthy living, many if not all are unprepared to renew themselves upon the occurrence of a disaster. No matter how sustainable a city is, if at a particular point in time and space it is struck by disaster any measure at mitigating the effects of a disaster such as Shelter Belts, Artificial Lakes, and Swamps, Parks and Gardens can only be as successful as the flexibility of the city itself. This is because cities in their very nature are concentrated and established settlements. They cannot be moved. This makes them vulnerable to forces that may strike at a particular time and place in the face of which they happen to be helpless. This problem can be tackled in the following ways. Firstly, using building structures that are Nature-oriented, and secondly, using structures that are Mobile & Transitional. The first example would include buildings that use Air, Natural Light, and Greenery to blend in with nature and can be as easily renewed owing to their compatibility with nature. Nature-Based Solutions are being integrated in Europe, Australia, and parts of Asia, but are yet to become a part of Mainstream Urban planning. The second and more powerful one is Mobile & Transitional Infrastructure. Infrastructure that is Easy-to-Assemble, Low Cost, and Movable Houses and Buildings can often be the best solution against external calamities or infrastructural breakdowns. A prominent example includes the equivalent of Cyclone Shelters in Bangladesh, prone to flooding, which can be easily assembled and dismantled and are affordable for common citizens. On an elementary level, an example of movable infrastructure in common life may include a Camper Van used widely in Tourism and Housing. In the future, smarter movable infrastructure may need to be built in order to build Anti-Fragile Cities

3. Public Autonomy and Social Participation:- As populations increase and the need for catering to their physical, economic, and social needs becomes it becomes crucial that management of cities be transferred to citizens. A sustainable city cannot be removed from the resources it depends on. In this case, valuable farmland, water, and agricultural resources tend to be channeled to cities. In the future as the importance of food security grows the onus on cities to depend more on their own resources will increase. This will drive the growth of Urban Farming, Vertical Agriculture, and Urban Gardening. While nature-based solutions to resource scarcity are already being implemented it is important that they be transferred to the hands of citizens to make cities more self-reliant. The same can as much be said as much for energy where energy generation and distribution be placed in the hands of citizens to ensure equitable utilization. This will also provide citizens greater agency to act in the event of a crisis.

The future can never be predicted. Underpinning all human history has been the fundamental unpredictability of events. In the case of complex systems like cities, this is more so. While the future can never be predicted, systems can make themselves become smarter and confront a world full of uncertainty. While threats or events can be forecast they cannot be definitely predicted. Whether or not we know the threats or opportunities of the future the more versatile our cities are at the present the more they will be able to venture into a future that they can never fully know.